CSE Lecture with CivMin’s Prof. Hamed Ibrahim: Adapting to Riverine Flooding in a Changing Global Climate

Flooding is the most destructive and expensive natural disaster. In engineered river basins, the variability of river flow is key to achieving the aims of the engineering structures on the river and avoiding riverine flooding. Given the expected change in hydrologic variability owing to global climate change, the challenge now is how to adapt the operating rules of these structures in order to achieve their aims while minimizing the occurrence of flooding. In this talk I will discuss current and future characteristics of hydrologic variability in the Missouri River Basin, a vitally important basin to the U.S. Economy. Analysis of downscaled future hydrologic data shows that, compared to the current decade, the months that dominate annual variability of precipitation and evaporation in the basin are the same in the next three decades. However, the months that dominate annual variability of air temperature are different in the next three decades. Because air temperature controls basin accumulation and thawing of snowfall, the dominant source of river water above the mainstem reservoirs, these findings highlight the need to consider altering existing strategies for reservoir water release. A new annual water release strategy is proposed that may minimize flooding below the reservoirs.