Guest Lecturer | Dr. Ioannis Tsanis | Climate Change Impact on Hydrometeorological Extremes

Abstract

Climate Change Impact on Hydrometeorological Extremes

Following a short introduction on the EU-funded projects related to climate change impact on various sectors such as tourism, energy, agriculture etc. the presentation will focus on the climate change impact on hydrometeorological extremes (floods and droughts).  Data from an ensemble of EURO-CORDEX climate models is used to determine the impact of climate change on extreme events, such as meteorological and hydrological droughts, extreme precipitation and floods on the island of Crete. Eleven climate models following three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) in a baseline time and two future periods provide the data for inter-comparison in the pertinent frequency analysis.

A hydrological model provides the precipitation and runoff data at a basin scale in order to calculate the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Standardized Runoff Index (SRI), and to identify the number of drought events for each climate model and scenario. These indices as well as the precipitation and runoff time series for all sub basins of the island provide the necessary data for performing the pertinent frequency analysis.  An increase in both severity and number of drought events may affect almost the entire Crete in the future climate periods. Extreme precipitation and flood events with 100 years return period may occur in different areas in the island. The magnitude of these events for the sub basins of Crete and the most vulnerable are identified, in terms of both severity and the change throughout the years in index magnitude. Application of the ensemble of climate models ensures that a wide selection of possibilities are taken into account that would lead to improved decisions in practice with a sound water resources management and planning.

BIOGRAPHY

Dr. Tsanis is a Full Professor in the School of Environmental Engineering at the Technical University of Crete (TUC), Greece, a Director of the Water Resources Management and Coastal Engineering Laboratory at TUC, an Associate Member of Climate Service Center Germany (GERICS) and a Professor Emeritus in the Department of Civil Engineering at McMaster University.

Dr. Tsanis is a graduate of Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Greece (Dipl. Civ. Eng.) and University of Toronto (M.A.Sc. and Ph.D., Civil Engineering).  After receiving his Ph.D. he worked as a NSERC Visiting Fellow in the National Water Research Institute (NWRI) in Burlington  and as a University Research Fellow and Professor in the Department of Civil Engineering at McMaster University

Dr. Tsanis is currently participating in several international research projects (NSERC, FP7 & H2020, ESA, EEA)  studying the impact of climate change on extreme events (droughts and floods), ecosystem tipping points, agriculture, cities, tourism, energy and climate change adaptation and governance in water management and forecasting of hydrometeorological extremes that produce floods with radar and satellite remote sensing and lightning activity.